It’s Derby Week!

Place your bets. Plus, the April 2023 monthly report featuring analysis of bitcoin and broader markets and what to watch for in May.

It’s Derby Week!

The 149th running of the Kentucky Derby is on Saturday. I always bet the Derby. It’s fun to have a little action during the race. Last year, my primary horse, Taiba, didn’t win but, like so many others watching, I had to put some money on the long shot—Rich Strike! He was an incredible 80-1 underdog and only in the race because another horse was scratched last minute.

What happened?

He won!

I’ll give my early Derby picks at the end of the email.

Last year at this time, markets were in turmoil. As Rich Strike was doing the impossible, the Nasdaq was recording its worst month since 2008. Bitcoin was also dropping. In the week leading up to the 2022 Derby, bitcoin fell 10% and broke below a level we haven’t seen since—$40,000. This year though, bitcoin’s moving the complete opposite direction.

Whereas 2022 was defined by a correction from all-time highs, 2023 (so far) looks to be a bounce back year.

The April Close

Bitcoin closed April at $29,268.81.

On April 30, bitcoin pushed as high as $29,952.03. Bulls wanted $30k. I wanted $30k. But, we didn’t get $30k.

Maybe $29,952.03 was close enough.

Bitcoin opened the year at $16,547.91.

With the April close, bitcoin was up 81%. Waking up today, Monday, May 1st… markets corrected and bitcoin’s testing $28,000. All signs point to traders taking profits where they can and, right now, that’s in bitcoin.

Being up more than 80% on the year, bitcoin is one asset in the green amidst an increasingly volatile economic environment.

Halving Watch

April means one year to the halving!

The next bitcoin having is likely less than one year away. That’s VERY exciting news! It’s difficult to predict the exact day and time yet, but most halving countdown predictors have the next bitcoin halving hitting in the final week of April 2024. That means that price action could get wild in both directions the second half of next year.

Newcomers tend to not fully grasp the impact of the halving until after it has occurred and long term holders often mistakenly think the halving is priced in ahead of time.

---

What’s the halving?

---

$30k Resistance

Is $30k the new $10k?

Between 2018-2020, $10,000 was a number to watch. Bitcoin traded close to, but mainly below, $10k for the better part of three years before kicking off the most recent bull run in late 2020.