Crypto market sentiment and my take.
TARGET PRICE range is $42,000-53,000.
Bitcoin is trading near $46,000 on Monday. The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap is up ~5% in the last week.
$50,000 is within reach.
In the last month, Bitcoin is up ~40% from lows around $29,000–30,000 in mid-July. Now, it faces another big test.
$50,000 may provide resistance because:
it’s a high/round number
it’s all time high territory
July buyers trim profits
Psychologically, $50k is a nice round number. Sometimes—it’s that simple. We have to also consider that a 40% move up from July lows means that recent buyers will take profits off the table. That doesn’t mean they’re not long term bulls, but we may continue a consolidated rise rather than a parabolic move to new all time highs.
OVER $50K is all time high territory.
From mid-Feb to mid-May, Bitcoin spent a significant amount of time above $50,000. During that time, Coinbase went public and BTC hit $64,834.44.
That three month period is all we have to go off of when comparing Bitcoin to $50-60k price levels. Plus—a lot has happened in the crypto space since then.
Key tighter range to watch.
Bitcoin needs to hold $46,000 and take $48,000 with conviction if it hopes to revisit $50,000. While there is support at $45,000, buy/sell signals on exchanges show $48,000 causing more immediate resistance before the larger, psychological $50k level.
As Bitcoin trades close to $50,000, I’ve also moved more BTC to cold storage. I told paid subscribers more about this last week.
~67% of my BTC is in cold storage
and, I have no plans of selling
August “Alt Season”?
Altcoins pump alongside Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is up 40% on the month.
Ethereum is up 70%.
Cardano is up 80%.
Ravencoin is up 133%!!!
And these are just cryptos I hold.
Paid subscribers track my entire crypto portfolio. I hold these altcoins with the intention of converting them to BTC over time. I’ve also mined ETH for the better part of this last year and am now mining RVN while I watch how mining pools react to recent upgrades on the Ethereum network.
I even bought a new graphics card for my crypto mining rig this week. Chipmakers have seen some improvements in their supply chains and, with Ethereum miners navigating the ETH 2.0 transition, miners are looking for any and all deals on GPUs near MSRP. They’re still hard to come by but I was excited to add another card to my mining rig earlier than expected.
Other altcoins booming in recent weeks—Revain, Solana, Terra, XRP, and XLM… to name a few. Most of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap are up 10-80% in the last week alone! To traders, this means a possible Alt Season.
Despite the rise in market cap for ETH and other top 10 cryptos, Bitcoin price action controls the larger moves across the cryptocurrency space.
I’m looking for favorable ratios in my holdings for ETH/BTC and ADA/BTC in the coming weeks. If it makes sense to do so, I’ll convert positions in either Ethereum or Cardano to Bitcoin.
I don’t trade Bitcoin
I don’t trade altcoins
I buy and hold
I convert to BTC over time
Just as I don’t trade Bitcoin, I don’t trade altcoins either. My Ethereum holdings are largely due to my buying ETH in 2016 and mining it throughout the last year.
My Ravencoin holdings are nearly 100% due to my mining RVN in recent months and my Cardano holdings are due to a speculative buy made when ADA was trading around $0.30 as a hedge against ETH.
What’s happening in crypto.
Crypto market tops $2 trillion
50 years since the gold standard
Congress and Crypto
Walmart seeks digital/crypto lead
BITCOIN TRADING in the mid-$40,000s has helped push the overall cryptocurrency market above $2 trillion for the first time since May.
This week also marked 50 years since United States President Nixon took the U.S. dollar off the gold standard. The dollar does remain the world’s reserve currency despite widespread inflation fears and ongoing dollar depreciation.
In the meantime, Bitcoin proves itself as a store of value against a depreciating dollar. Congress and other governments around the world are being forced to recognize and consider the impact of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies on the larger financial system. We saw this highlighted in recent holdups around the U.S. infrastructure bill and we’ll continue to see the impact of crypto on public policy moving forward.
Walmart posted a position on their careers page for a digital and cryptocurrency lead. The world’s largest retailer does this on the heels of Amazon doing the same thing. Public and private companies, investment banks, and more continue to build out cryptocurrency teams.
The future is bright for crypto.
Short term price action and volatility aside, increased government regulation and interest from the public and private sectors means more mainstream adoption.
What to Watch
Where will Bitcoin go next?
PRICE RANGES TO WATCH:
Watch this wider and tighter price range in the coming weeks. Bitcoin faces near term resistance in the high $40,000s along with psychological resistance at $50,000.
As I mentioned in previous weeks, $30,000 remains the lower level of support. Since the 40% bounce off $30k though, Bitcoin appears to have established stronger support in the low $40,000s.
Taking down $50k with conviction opens up a shot at an all time high. August can set the stage for a thrilling second half of 2021.
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