The Long Game: Bitcoin Above $100K, Halfway Through the Cycle
Halfway Through the Cycle
We are now at the midpoint of what would traditionally be Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle. Historically, the year following a halving event tends to produce strong price action, with a peak typically forming 12 to 18 months after the halving. By that standard, we are right on schedule.
But this cycle looks different.
Bitcoin is trading well above $100,000.
Even with the expected volatility at all-time highs, the market has remained remarkably steady. There have been no sudden blow-off tops, no panic-driven retreats.
This is not the parabolic chaos of 2017 or the retail frenzy of 2021.
This is something more stable.
A Longer Bull Market?
There is growing consensus that this bull market might stretch beyond the traditional timeline. Analysts and institutional voices alike are suggesting that the peak may not come in late 2025, but instead in early or mid-2026.
This shift in thinking stems from the nature of today’s market. Bitcoin is no longer driven primarily by retail speculation. It’s now supported by institutional capital, public company treasuries, and long-term investors who see it as a reserve asset.
As a result, price appreciation may be slower and more sustained.
Rather than an explosive run-up followed by a sharp correction, we could be in the early stages of a drawn-out bull market that unfolds gradually through 2026.
Why the Price Action Feels Different
Some observers have noted that Bitcoin's price action feels “muted” despite the all-time highs.
There’s reason for that.
Some of the psychology behind that muted feeling is simply acclimatization. People adjust to prices (high or low) quicker than they think. New levels become the new normal much faster than in prior market cycles.
Plus, there’s something else.
Much of the speculative energy that once flowed directly into Bitcoin is now being diverted elsewhere.
Newcomers looking for high short-term returns are exploring altcoins, Layer 2 tokens, and crypto-native treasury assets.
Capital is still entering the digital asset space, but it’s being distributed across a wider range of speculative bets.
This may be holding Bitcoin back from the kind of vertical moves we saw in previous cycles. But it also reinforces the fact that Bitcoin is no longer seen as a high-risk speculative play. Instead, it is increasingly viewed as a long-term store of value, more digital gold than “next big thing.”
After all, Bitcoin is now a $2 trillion asset class independent of the rest of the crypto space. That level may even be a new floor.
Bitcoin Is Playing a Different Role Now
The slower price rise is not a weakness.
It’s a sign of Bitcoin’s evolving role in the financial system.
Bitcoin is being treated more like a monetary base layer than a momentum trade.
Its volatility is still there, but the nature of that volatility is changing. Investors are thinking in years, not weeks.
And many now view Bitcoin as a hedge against monetary debasement and a foundational component of a modern portfolio.
As a result, the bull market may look different this time. It may be slower, longer, and more fundamentally driven. But if you zoom out, that’s a bullish sign in itself.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin is no longer just part of a cycle. It is becoming part of the system.
Whether this cycle peaks in Q4 2025, extends into 2026, or follows an entirely new pattern, one thing is clear: Bitcoin is here to stay.
It continues to perform above key psychological levels, even as volatility ebbs and flows. This is not just a rally. It is the maturation of an asset.
And, we are still early.
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HODL on Garth.