Stay in the Game
It's Bitcoin Tuesday!—Jul. 7, 2026
Stay in the Game
Every bear market asks the same question.
It’s not:
“Can you predict the bottom?”
Instead, it’s:
“Can you simply stay in the game long enough to benefit from what comes next?”
After spending time around the $60,000 level, Bitcoin has bounced back into the mid-$60,000s. Is that the bottom?
Maybe. Maybe not.
History suggests we could still have several months of weakness ahead.
Looking back across the previous four halving cycles, the deepest part of the bear market has often occurred roughly two to two and a half years after the halving, which would leave another three to four months where volatility and downside remain possible.
But markets don’t owe us perfect symmetry.
There’s also a very real possibility that the recent lows were enough. Bitcoin could spend months moving sideways, building a base near the average market cost basis around $55,000-$60,000 before eventually beginning the next leg higher.
If macroeconomic conditions remain stable or improve, that cost basis becomes an increasingly important level to watch.
The truth is we don’t know.
And that’s exactly why overthinking becomes so expensive.
Don’t be…
a textbook overthinker.
Bear Market Test
One theme has shown up repeatedly in recent newsletters. The biggest challenge during a bear market isn’t understanding Bitcoin.
It’s managing yourself.
Bear markets create the illusion that something else is always working better.
Today it’s artificial intelligence.
Tomorrow it’s space exploration.
Next month it’ll be robotics, biotech, quantum computing, or some company that doubles in a week because it’s attached to the market’s newest obsession.
We’ve seen this movie before.
Capital always chases what’s exciting.
Financial media follows the hottest story. Social media amplifies whoever made the fastest gains. Suddenly, holding Bitcoin while it moves sideways feels like you’re standing still.
But standing still isn’t the same as falling behind. Sometimes it’s exactly what positions you where you need to be for the next cycle.
Chasing Doesn’t Compound
One of Charlie Munger’s greatest investing lessons wasn’t about finding the next big winner. It was about avoiding the behavior that destroys long-term returns.
The crowd rarely stops chasing.
When one trend cools off, another immediately takes its place. Investors jump from narrative to narrative, convincing themselves each time that this one is different.
The problem isn’t discovering new opportunities. The problem is constantly abandoning old ones before they’ve had time to work.
Chasing = Distracted Capital
Money flows into an idea for a few weeks or months before moving on to whatever generates the next headline. That isn’t investing. It’s simply rotating attention.
Every cycle reminds us that conviction compounds while distraction resets the clock. Bitcoin adoption has never been a straight line. It arrives in waves.
There are periods where almost nobody talks about bitcoin, followed by periods where it dominates every financial conversation. If you’re constantly leaving before the next wave arrives, you’ll always feel like you’re starting over.
Stay Long Enough
I’ve owned Bitcoin for well over a decade now. At this point, it isn’t a trend for me. It’s a foundational part of my portfolio.
That doesn’t mean I expect it to go straight up. It doesn’t mean every cycle looks identical. And it certainly doesn’t mean I know where prices will be… ever.
It means I’ve accepted that meaningful assets require meaningful time.
Bitcoin remains relatively early in its global adoption story. There will continue to be competing narratives, new technologies, and exciting investment themes that temporarily capture attention and capital.
Some of them will become enormously successful.
Most won’t.
None of them change why I own Bitcoin. The goal isn’t to perfectly identify the bottom.
The goal is to survive the hardest part of the cycle so you’re still here when sentiment changes. Bull markets don’t send invitations.
By the time everyone agrees the bear market is over, prices have usually moved far beyond where most people were comfortable buying.
That’s why patience remains the most underrated skill in Bitcoin.
Not because it’s exciting.
Because it keeps you in the game. And staying in the game is what gives you the opportunity to benefit from everything that comes next.
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