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Crypto market sentiment and my take.
Target Price Range: $47,000-50,000
Bitcoin continues its test of $50,000. Once again, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap is consolidating below $50k. Last week, Bitcoin broke the psychological barrier briefly before retracing to current levels.
On the month, BTC is up ~24%.
The August close looks to be within or near the target range. The first week of September will be telling for the crypto markets.
Traditional and crypto markets alike are sorting out recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell who said that the central bank is cautious but that tapering could begin before the end of the year. This is amidst recent spikes in COVID Delta variant cases and hurricane Ida making landfall.
I’m looking for Bitcoin to close August within the current target price range in order to signal a bullish start to the month ahead.
Other price ranges to watch:
The wider range I’m watching remain $30,000-67,000. September could reveal whether or not we can expect another all time high this year and, if Bitcoin touches that $67,000 level, the upside could be much higher.
S2F Says $100k
Bitcoin and former institutional investor PlanB is calling for $100,000 Bitcoin by December if stock-to-flow holds up. The price target is in contrast to several others he’s previously mentioned but it does fall within the range of the S2F model.
Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital called for $115,000 by August earlier this year and, at the time, his firm’s model was right on track. Morehead nailed the price of Bitcoin near its all time high in April.
Well, August came and went and we’re not at $115,000… but in the months following the ATH, Bitcoin encountered seemingly unexpected speed bumps such as China’s banning Bitcoin mining, larger ESG conversations, and an unprecedented amount of attention from lawmakers and international organizations.
Is $100k Really Possible?
A strong September could set Bitcoin up for a run at $67,000 and, if it takes that price level with conviction, we open up a possible move toward $100,000.
It’s a tall order but to put it in perspective, that is just 2x from current prices. I wrote a recent piece called You’re Not Ready for $100k Bitcoin.
No matter when it hits, it will hit unlike any level we’ve seen. I envision the market sentiment around such a move to most closely resemble Bitcoin’s first shot at $20,000 back in December 2017.
Bitcoin doubled in just over two weeks that December. Zooming out further, it did about a 10x in five months between June and the end of the year.
It was an unprecedented bull run that is now only matched by October 2020 to April 2021. What happens next will be A LOT for everyone to process.
What to Watch
Where will Bitcoin go next?
Recent Monthly Closes:
Bitcoin closed yesterday at $48,829.83.
It remains in the $47,000-50,000 price range mentioned above. To signal a bullish push toward $67,000, we need to see Bitcoin close September above $53,000.
A holiday weekend is coming up in the United States but that won’t stop the potential effects of FED policies, hurricane Ida, or any additional fallout related to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Any of these items could swing traditional and crypto markets either direction.
Long term, Bitcoin survives FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt). Any short term negative impacts would be brought on by newer retail traders ceding BTC to stronger hands.
Eyes on El Salvador
Another key news item to watch.
El Salvador is making Bitcoin legal tender on September 7th. Bitcoiners have been assisting with the country’s rollout of the legislation passed earlier this year. There’s some chatter around government-backed wallets bringing about privacy concerns but ultimately the move to make Bitcoin legal tender is seen as bullish by Bitcoiners and crypto users.
It’s impossible for Bitcoiners to control the overall narrative around Bitcoin. Mainstream adoption will come via different channels and will be championed by various people in influential positions.
Because Bitcoin has no centralized authority, marketing team, and is used differently across the world, mainstreaming will be a long term “wait and see” game that every Bitcoiner will have to adapt to.
The best thing to do as Bitcoin gains adoption is to ensure your holdings are safe. Storing and securing your crypto is key.
My Crypto Mining
Quick look at what I’m mining.
Just prior to the London upgrade on Ethereum, I switched over my home crypto mining setup to 100% RVN.
With roughly 20% drops in mining profitability around ETH and longer wait times for reward payouts from mining pools, I withdrew any remaining ETH rewards I had in my mining pool and have pivoted to mining Ravencoin for the time being.
On top of the move from ETH to RVN, BlockFi will also be reducing their interest payout structure on September 1st, making me less incentivized to mine ETH directly to BlockFi. Both the ETH 2.0 and BlockFi updates unfolding have me likely planning to move any mined ETH that I had stored with BlockFi into cold storage ahead of potential conversions to BTC.
BlockFi is still a great product for what it is but my primary use of their platform was enabling myself to earn interest on top of freshly mined ETH rewards.
Now, my strategy is to continue mining Ravencoin on spec that it will appreciate ahead of a January halving event.
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