Pricing in Uncertainty

Happy Bitcoin Friday! — Mar. 21, 2025

Uncertainty

Markets like certainty.

Not… uncertainty.

Neither macro or crypto markets have any sense of certainty right now. In the US, Fed chair Jerome Powell said it word for word this week: “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.”

In crypto, the current climate means less speculative trading.

Bitcoin continues to trade sideways and popular altcoins continue to suffer.

Performance

Year-to-Date:

• S&P 500: -4.09%

• Nasdaq: -8.73%

• Bitcoin: -10.17%

Top 3 Memecoins YTD:

• DOGE: -47.44%

• SHIB: -41.03%

• PEPE: -63.94%

Bitcoin generally trades closer to tech stocks and the Nasdaq than anything else in traditional markets.

Compared to other cryptocurrencies, however, bitcoin remains closer to a more stable or safe haven asset than not.

Memecoins and more speculative altcoins get destroyed at times like these.

Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood recently commented on memecoins, saying that her team thinks “most of them are not going to be worth very much.”

BTC Dominance

Last week, I spoke about bitcoin dominance and two other key metrics I watch regularly in bitcoin and crypto.

Bitcoin dominance represents bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market.

Year-to-date, BTC dominance is +6%.

Looking at both a rising dominance metric and the downward volatility in terms of altcoin prices, it’s clear that investors and traders are retreating to bitcoin versus other cryptocurrencies.

Acceleration

At this point in the current bitcoin market cycle, we’re awaiting a large move in either direction. April 2024 marked the fourth bitcoin halving.

The price impacts of the bitcoin halving tend to occur between 6 to 18 months following the halving.

We’re in the second half of the current market cycle, meaning we have maybe six to seven months of a bull market left.

The four year market cycle is changing as bitcoin adoption and bitcoin’s total market cap increase but the halving cycle is the best we have to go off of.

2025 Price Levels

I’m watching these levels:

Cycle Downside

• $60,000

$60,000 represents the largest round number below MicroStrategy’s average bitcoin purchase price. Now called Strategy, the company has amassed roughly 500,000 BTC since they began buying bitcoin in August 2020.

Strategy is a strong, long term buyer.

Their average bitcoin price near $66,000 is a good benchmark for medium to long term holders, meaning it would take a correction all the way down to $60,000 to truly test the hands of most long term bitcoiners.

Ultimate Downside