Pricing in Uncertainty
Happy Bitcoin Friday! — Mar. 21, 2025
Uncertainty
Markets like certainty.
Not… uncertainty.
Neither macro or crypto markets have any sense of certainty right now. In the US, Fed chair Jerome Powell said it word for word this week: “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.”
In crypto, the current climate means less speculative trading.
Bitcoin continues to trade sideways and popular altcoins continue to suffer.
Performance
Year-to-Date:
S&P 500: -4.09%
Nasdaq: -8.73%
Bitcoin: -10.17%
Top 3 Memecoins YTD:
DOGE: -47.44%
SHIB: -41.03%
PEPE: -63.94%
Bitcoin generally trades closer to tech stocks and the Nasdaq than anything else in traditional markets.
Compared to other cryptocurrencies, however, bitcoin remains closer to a more stable or safe haven asset than not.
Memecoins and more speculative altcoins get destroyed at times like these.
Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood recently commented on memecoins, saying that her team thinks “most of them are not going to be worth very much.”
BTC Dominance
Last week, I spoke about bitcoin dominance and two other key metrics I watch regularly in bitcoin and crypto.
Bitcoin dominance represents bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market.
Year-to-date, BTC dominance is +6%.
Looking at both a rising dominance metric and the downward volatility in terms of altcoin prices, it’s clear that investors and traders are retreating to bitcoin versus other cryptocurrencies.
Acceleration
At this point in the current bitcoin market cycle, we’re awaiting a large move in either direction. April 2024 marked the fourth bitcoin halving.
The price impacts of the bitcoin halving tend to occur between 6 to 18 months following the halving.
We’re in the second half of the current market cycle, meaning we have maybe six to seven months of a bull market left.
The four year market cycle is changing as bitcoin adoption and bitcoin’s total market cap increase but the halving cycle is the best we have to go off of.
2025 Price Levels
I’m watching these levels:
Cycle Downside
$60,000
$60,000 represents the largest round number below MicroStrategy’s average bitcoin purchase price. Now called Strategy, the company has amassed roughly 500,000 BTC since they began buying bitcoin in August 2020.
Strategy is a strong, long term buyer.
Their average bitcoin price near $66,000 is a good benchmark for medium to long term holders, meaning it would take a correction all the way down to $60,000 to truly test the hands of most long term bitcoiners.
Ultimate Downside
$40,000
$40,000 represents the largest round number below the realized price of bitcoin, currently near $43,000. The realized price is the average cost basis at which all bitcoins were purchased.
Realized price is the floor.
Cycle Upside
$125,000
$125,000 is about a 12-15% gain on the current all-time high price. With bitcoin still remaining well within the bounds of a bull market, a new all-time high remains within striking distance, especially with steady trading between $80,000 and $90,000 since November of last year.
While bitcoin failed to test $125,000 the last time it was trading above $100,000, the psychological both achievement and resistance that $100k represents cannot be overstated. It’s a massive level in terms of bitcoin history and investor psychology.
Another push above $100k opens up greater potential for a move higher than the December and January price action which was the first real time BTC traded at that level.
Further Upside
$350,000
I’ve long thought that a blow-off top range for bitcoin this cycle could be anywhere between $150,000 and $350,000.
Ongoing trade wars and stagflation in traditional markets, however, could stifle that blow-off top range this year.
That said, it’s key to look beyond the current cycle. I’ve been in bitcoin for more than a decade now and have encountered multiple cycles at this point.
The next time period to focus on is after the fifth bitcoin halving which is expected to occur sometime in early Q2 2028, currently targeting April 2028.
Think: 2029-2030
Revisiting Cathie Wood for a moment, she also reiterated their bull case for the 2030 cycle, calling for a $1.5 million bitcoin.
Prices are impossible to predict but what’s good to track are cycle highs and lows.
We’ve seen previous cycle highs turn into current cycle lows. Price is the starting point metric to look at. But, it’s putting price in context that matters.
Keep reading:
Enjoy the weekend!
I am not an investment or financial advisor. All opinions expressed are mine alone. Read the full DISCLAIMER on the About page.
HODL on Garth.