Prices That Matter
Happy Bitcoin Friday! — Feb. 20, 2026
Prices That Matter
A few weeks ago I wrote:
Price is emotional. Cost basis is structural.
The average cost basis of all bitcoin in circulation sits around $56,137.
Strategy holds over 700,000 BTC at an average price near $76,000.
When buyers of that scale sit near breakeven, markets tend to notice.
Revisit the full post for more:
Let’s tighten the lens.
The Cycle Context
The April 2024 halving played out almost exactly by the book. Bitcoin peaked 18 months later near $126,000.
What’s different this time:
The blow-off top wasn’t as extreme as 2017 or 2021.
The drawdown hasn’t been as violent either.
Instead of a 75–85% collapse, we corrected ~50%.
If the upside was more muted, the downside may be too. Expect chop, likely a few more months of it, if this bear market follows prior post-peak patterns.
The Structural Floors
1️⃣ $70k–$80k: Institutional & Retail Breakeven
Strategy holds 700k+ BTC at ~ $76k average.
Then, layer in spot ETF buyers like.
Both retail and institutional.
A large chunk of capital is clustered between $70k–$80k. When a high volume of capital sits near breakeven, supply tightens. Buyers readjust, they don’t panic.
That makes this zone a potential short-term floor.
2️⃣ $55k–$60k: Aggregate Market Cost Basis
The average cost basis of all circulating BTC is ~ $56k.
That’s the weighted conviction of:
Long-term holders
ETFs
Corporate treasuries
DCA buyers
If we ever see a true deep-bear flush, this is the structural worst-case zone.
This cycle vs. past ones.
The Big Picture
This cycle didn’t overshoot like prior ones.
But so far, it hasn’t undershot either.
We’re correcting above prior cycle highs.
That matters.
In the short term, watch where capital sits:
High $70Ks
Low $60Ks
Mid-$50Ks
Everything else is noise.
Price moves fast.
Cost basis moves slow.
Slow money builds floors.
Enjoy the weekend!
Something else to read:
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I am not an investment or financial advisor. All opinions expressed are mine alone. Read the full DISCLAIMER on the About page.
HODL on Garth.