Markets Like Certainty

Happy Bitcoin Friday! — Nov. 8, 2024

Markets Like Certainty

An election happened in the United States and there was a clear winner on election night. Regardless of who you voted for, the market reaction was clear.

US equities markets roared higher on Wednesday. On Tuesday night though, bitcoin was the early mover. Bitcoin, being a global 24/7 market, is often an indicator of broader market sentiment when traditional markets are closed.

This week:

• S&P 500: +4.7%

• Dow Jones: +4.74%

• Nasdaq: +5.79%

• Bitcoin: +11.44%

It’s likely that markets would moved higher on either candidate’s victory because, ultimately, markets like certainty.

It doesn’t matter what the path forward is but, as long as the path is clear, markets can react accordingly. Markets are forward looking so uncertainty typically brings about increased volatility. Certainty provides a more steady, upward reaction.

Bitcoin Post-Election

What about bitcoin now?

Donald Trump returns to the White House again this January. What will he do that could impact bitcoin? On the campaign trail, bitcoin was mentioned by both candidates. It can no longer be ignored. It’s gotten too big and industries related to bitcoin and crypto are growing.

Both President Joe Biden and Trump in his first term were relatively skeptical towards bitcoin and crypto. That seems to have changed for Trump though.

He spoke at this year’s bitcoin conference in Nashville and made a variety of pro-bitcoin and crypto promises. Here’s a few things we could see happen:

• replace SEC chair Gensler

• push for a strategic BTC reserve

• promote US-centric mining

Will any of this happen?

Time will tell.

Firing Gensler is feasible.

Even the strategic bitcoin reserve isn’t as far fetched as one might think. U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) has introduced legislation to build a strategic bitcoin reserve. The legislation would: