How Bitcoin Hits $288k
Bitcoin's stock-to-flow model predicts $288,000... Plus, email upgrades are coming!
Can BTC Reach $288k?
$288,000 is no random number.
Popularized by PlanB on Twitter, the Bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) model sees BTC hitting $288,000 if the current market cycle continues.
It could hit as early as August.
A note about S2F.
It takes into consideration 2 things…
1) The existing stock
2) And, the amount to be produced
Because Bitcoin has a fixed supply built into its protocol, S2F modeling has lined up extremely well with the price of BTC over time.
That said, take S2F with a grain of salt.
It doesn’t take into consideration external variables such as institutional buyers, government quantitative easing, etc. Really, it focuses on two factors and that’s it. Nothing macro. The model focuses on a limited number variables.
So, while it doesn’t capture everything impacting Bitcoin, it does arguably include the most important pieces influencing BTC—the supply and the impending supply built into the Bitcoin protocol itself.
Many believe that Satoshi’s true brilliance rests in that 21 million BTC limit and the production path he laid out to get there.
General consensus is that we’re somewhere between 30-50% through the current Bitcoin market cycle. Another massive run-up is very plausible before this market cycle either turns bearish or levels off.
Is August Realistic?
I’m personally looking more at the entire second half of 2021 as the time to start watching the Bitcoin price with a meticulous eye.
Q3 and Q4 will be crucial.
S2F has tracked well with Bitcoin’s historical price action but we are also approaching intense psychological levels.
$100k Is a Major Test
Are you prepared for a $100,000 Bitcoin?
If not, start making plans now.
$100k is a price target in PlanB’s S2Fv2 model (yes, he has multiple models). It’s a critical level to consider when looking at the overall market cycle.
$100k is a HUGE psychological test.
What Bitcoin does at the 6-figure unit price could trigger either a sharp parabolic move upward or a temporary pullback as investors take profit.
If it sustains itself upward, then we need to start eyeing $288,000, with several key price levels such as $150,000, $200,000—$220,000, and ultimately what it does beyond $288,000 if we get there.
Even if Bitcoin does dump at or around $100k, this could be temporary if whale buyers gobble up sellers’ BTC and gather steam for a bigger spike.
Willy Woo has a high price target between $300,000—400,000… Dan Held has alluded to the idea of a Bitcoin Supercycle, where BTC doesn’t pullback the way we’ve seen in the past and, instead, goes as high as $1 million…
Realistic Bitcoin Outlook
Okay, deep breath.
Let’s be honest with ourselves.
These high price targets are glitzy.
We all want them.
BUT, are they realistic?
The answer is “YES, BUT”…
Yes, but we need sustained institutional interest. Yes, but we need increased investment in the cryptocurrency space.
This means further growth for the likes of crypto startups, a Coinbase IPO, ETF products, crypto buying and lending expansion, and so on.
Yes, but we need long-time HODLers to maintain the diamond hands approach of continuing to hold in the face of ridiculous price levels.
It will be difficult for many to pass up profits at some of these levels. Larger holders could make profit takers irrelevant.
Yes, but we need governments and banks to pick a side (embrace or reject). They can’t be neutral on Bitcoin for it to really flourish. Either embrace Bitcoin adoption or reject it. Bitcoin benefits either way but neutrality could stagnate a rise to the moon.
Yes, but it doesn’t have to happen all at once.
2021 appears to be teeing up Bitcoin for a massive supercycle sized run-up but it’s okay if everything doesn’t happen this time around.
Bitcoin is making headway and, barring unforeseen circumstances, it will be better off than it is today by the time the next halving rolls around.
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$57,495.54—the BTC price today.
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