Future Price Anchoring

It's Bitcoin Tuesday!—Mar. 17, 2026

Mar 17, 2026

Future Price Anchoring

For years, Bitcoiners have talked about large round numbers as though they were inevitable. $300,000. $500,000. Or even… $1 million Bitcoin.

These numbers have floated around the Bitcoin conversation for over a decade. Not as wild speculation, but as a kind of shared expectation about where this asset ultimately trends if adoption continues.

What’s interesting is that even though we haven’t reached those levels yet, the conviction around them hasn’t faded. If anything, it’s strengthened.

That’s because many Bitcoiners aren’t anchored to today’s price.

They’re anchored to future price.

Anchored to the Future

In traditional markets, investors anchor to past prices. A stock was once $150, so $100 feels cheap. A house sold for $500K, so $400K looks like a bargain.

Bitcoin flips this psychology on its head.

Instead of anchoring to the past, many long-term holders anchor to where they believe the price will eventually go (myself included).

If you believe Bitcoin ultimately settles somewhere in the hundreds of thousands or higher, then the current price looks like an earlier stage of the journey.

Not a peak.

Not even close.

Just a waypoint.

Pre-Acclimatization

There’s another layer to this that I’ve written about before: acclimatization.

In Bitcoin, people adjust to higher price levels over time. Slowly at first, then quickly the longer they’ve been here. What once was absurd becomes normal.

$1,000 once felt impossible.

Then it was normal.

$10,000 felt impossible.

Then it was normal.

$100,000 felt impossible.

Then it too was normal.

But long-term Bitcoiners do something unusual. They acclimatize before the price arrives. These impossible levels are something we view as inevitable.

For better or worse, we mentally normalize price levels years in advance. By the time Bitcoin actually reaches them, the shock has already worn off.

In other words, we pre-acclimatize. It’s a bit crazy. We’re a bit crazy, but early adopters often are. They have conviction long before the market does.

Bitcoiners like to say:

“We’ve already won.”

Bitcoin doesn’t need anyone or any institution to validate it anymore. It has worked for 17 years now. I’ve used it firsthand for about 13 of those years and I constantly entertain any and all bear cases and I’m no less bullish.

But what if we never hit $1M?

A Thought Exercise

The Next Window

The next major window where some of these long-discussed prices could start entering reality may be the cycle following the next halving.

Roughly the 2028–2030 timeframe.

If Bitcoin continues following the broad rhythm of the four-year cycle—expanding adoption, tightening supply, and growing institutional participation—that’s when some of the numbers that once sounded outrageous may begin to look plausible.

Not guaranteed. But plausible.

Which brings us back to future price anchoring.

How High Is “High”?

Interestingly, the upper bounds of Bitcoin’s future price are themselves shaped by this anchoring. For years the conversation revolved around $100K. Then it became $500K. The Winklevoss twins popularized “The Case for $500K Bitcoin” right around the same time Michael Saylor and then MicroStrategy starting buying BTC (also right around the same time I started writing Bitcoin Binge!). Nowadays, $1 million is a common reference point.

As Bitcoin grows, the anchors move. What once felt like the ceiling eventually becomes the midpoint of the next conversation.

And that may be one of the most important psychological dynamics in this entire market. Because long before the price reaches those levels, the people paying attention have already adjusted their expectations.

They’ve already anchored to the future.

Have you?

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