Bullish July?
Happy Bitcoin Friday! — Jun. 27, 2025
Bullish July?
Bitcoin continues to trade near all-time highs as we wrap up the first half of 2025. Given bitcoin's recent, impressive, streak of trading above $100,000, the vast majority of bitcoin holders are in profit.
Naturally, that's the case when it's trading at all-time high levels but it should be noted that 95% of holders are in profit.
Also notable is that the total market cost basis (the realized price or average price bitcoin was purchased) is $46,665 as of the end of May. That price will have surely inched up several percentage points by the time June wraps.
The short term-holder cost basis is likely more relevant, putting that realized price at $96,108. It emphasizes the recent trading activity and could be viewed as an initial, short-term price floor.
200-Day Moving Average
Bitcoin is trading well above its 200-day moving average. The bull market remains soundly intact as we're entering what, in the traditional four-year market cycle framework, is the second half of the bull market. If we stick to the historical cycle trajectory, bitcoin could top out in late Q4 or see continued run-ups into Q1 2026.
Is This Time Different?
Strategy CEO Michael Saylor has been outspoken about the fact that we may have entered a new era of bitcoin price action.
He's leading the charge in terms of institutional adoption but even beyond Strategy's acquisitions and holdings, we're witnessing an unprecedented institutional rush to acquire bitcoin as a long term strategic asset.
In the past, it's been individual bitcoiners, typically who have held for at least 3 to 5 years, who then deepen conviction at that point and continue to be even stronger hands as they progress into the future.
Now, we have those same bitcoiners with increasing conviction plus some of the biggest names in finance.
ETF Action
BlackRock's IBIT bitcoin ETF is now the fastest-ever ETF to accumulate $70 billion in assets.
It's the outright winner in terms of the spot bitcoin ETFs but others are thriving too. The bitcoin ETFs have been compared to gold since their launch and investors are turning to both bitcoin and gold and safe haven assets.
Gold ETFs were outperforming bitcoin ETFs in Q1 in terms of inflows but that seems to have flipped sharply in May and June.
Historically, we've seen a trend of gold outperformance first before bitcoin, in terms of gold price and other metrics such as gold ETF inflows, followed by a slowing in gold coupled with a sharp outperformance by bitcoin.
In short…
Gold moves first, bitcoin moves second, and with greater magnitude.
2nd Half Mania?
We haven't reached peak bull market mania yet. Looking at past cycles, bitcoin tends to rise much higher from current comparable levels before we see a blow-off top.
Ark Invest sees us still two standard deviations from current price levels in terms of unrealized profits before we call a potential top.
What I take from this is that bitcoin coiling near or above $100,000 is healthy, potential longer term, consolidation.
Large round numbers remain key support and resistance levels both down and up respectively and $100k is the biggest large round number yet.
Some investors and big names in bitcoin are calling for the end of the four-year market cycle. Instead, they see a slow bleed upward with decreased volatility thanks to increasing institutional and long term holders.
The pool of liquid bitcoin available is shrinking but it also remains entirely to be seen whether or not we've broken free from the four-year halving cycles.
Either way, I can't wait to see what bitcoin does in the second half of 2025.
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Enjoy the weekend!
I am not an investment or financial advisor. All opinions expressed are mine alone. Read the full DISCLAIMER on the About page.
HODL on Garth.