Bitcoin Volatility
...and Bitcoin on Thanksgiving.
Welcome to The Bitcoin Binge Letter!
Market Analysis
Target Price Range: $58,000-67,000
The road to new all-time highs is riddled with volatility—don’t expect Bitcoin to continue mainstreaming without it.
Volatility is part of the journey.
Bitcoin managed a daily close over $60,000 for four straight weeks with the exception of less than a handful of days.
Even amid last week’s correction, Bitcoin’s lowest daily close was still just $56,942.14. The ~$58k level appears to be an area of possible support although we could test $50,000-53,000 if bears win out in the short term.
Volatility won’t decrease until Bitcoin adoption becomes much greater than it currently is, global economic instability improves, or simply until Bitcoin has a more established track record.
We’re still in price discovery mode.
Price Ranges to Watch
On the upside…
Target: $58,000-67,000
$67,000-74,000
$74,000-90,000
On the downside…
$50,000-58,000
$42,000-50,000
30,000-42,000
Give Thanks
Bitcoin has a history of being discussed over the holidays. Historically, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap has made huge waves in Q4, often seeing its most significant bull market spikes between Thanksgiving and New Year’s.
BTC Price on Thanksgiving
2013—$1,031.95
2014—$369.67
2015—$352.68
2016—$740.29
2017—$8,038.77
2018—$4,365.94
2019—$7,463.11
2020—$17,150.62
2021—$???
Most famously, Bitcoin rocketed to its then all-time high near $20,000 shortly after Thanksgiving 2017. We broke that level almost three years later to the very week when Bitcoin doubled between September and November 2020, getting us to the levels we’re now watching with eager eyes.
Where will Bitcoin be this Thanksgiving?
Recent Monthly Closes
July—$41,626.20
August—$47,166.69
September—$43,790.90
October—$61,318.96
November—$???
Thanksgiving Day in the U.S. puts us less than a week from the monthly close and Bitcoin is coming off its all-time high monthly close of $61,318.96.
Is this a $60k setup for $100k? On-chain analysts are split on whether or not cryptocurrency markets will run hot into late Q1 2022 or top out earlier.
One thing is clear—the price of Bitcoin will be orders of magnitude higher by year end than it ever has been. Bitcoin existed without a true price for the better part of two years before Laszlo Hanyecz bought pizza with it and it wasn’t until a year later that significant Bitcoin trading began to occur.
Bitcoin markets pre-2013 were even more the wild west than recent years.
In 2011, Bitcoin went on a volatile ride from $1 in the Spring to $32 in the Summer before bottoming out near $2 come Winter.
Markets Go Both Ways
Markets move both ways—up and down. Newer entrants to the Bitcoin and crypto space may be deterred by 10-20% (or more) price swings.
When it comes to Bitcoin, we’re talking about a universally accessible asset that’s traded 24/7—the markets never stop. Plus, we’re still in the early innings here. If it feels like Bitcoin has already gone mainstream… it hasn’t. Trust me.
Some of the most powerful governments in the world continue to reject Bitcoin, dismiss it, and outright attack or blame it for the world’s own economic shortcomings. This will increase as time goes on.
Volatility will become more severe in the near term. Bitcoin and other hedge-assets will continue to rise relative to the price of the U.S. dollar and other prominent currencies as inflation and economic instability worsens. We’re poised for critical times ahead and for better or worse, Bitcoin has taken its seat at the table.
What to Watch
The November close will be telling for the weeks ahead. I want to see Bitcoin trading at least between $58,000-67,000 if not $67,000-74,000 in order to open up a possible move toward $90,000.
Did you buy “the dip”?
I bought some Bitcoin during last week’s “dip” below all-time highs. I don’t do this very often anymore but I did make three purchases at different times.
I’ll tell paid subscribers more next week and give them a look at what I’m planning for in the coming weeks. With my cryptocurrency mining rig in action mining Ravencoin, we also have a Ravencoin halving event coming in January that could prove significant if the larger crypto bull market remains intact.
For those of you in the U.S., have a happy Thanksgiving. For those of you elsewhere, enjoy the upcoming holiday season.
Bitcoin is a global network with a global community and I’m thankful to share it with each and every one of you.
$59,036.76—BTC Today
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