Bitcoin on the 4th
Happy Bitcoin Friday! — Jul. 4, 2025
Bitcoin on the 4th
Bitcoin just made its highest monthly close ever. $107,135.33 to end June. Last week, I talked about how July was looking quite bullish…
We’re mid to late bull market in the traditional four-year bitcoin halving cycle and looking at another ~6 months of runway for the bulls.
Anything can happen.
Prices on the 4th
BTC prices on the 4th of July.
We’ve come a long way…
2025—$108,625
2024—$58,659
2023—$31,051
2022—$20,247
2021—$35,529
2020—$9,147
2019—$11,169
2018—$6,590
2017—$2,582
2016—$681
2015—$260
2014—$632
2013—$77
2012—$6.50
Bitcoin is about as American an ideal as it gets. It is the embodiment of financial sovereignty and optionality. Anyone can use bitcoin, independent of any authority or third party.
All you need is a temporary internet connection and you can be your own bank and protect your financial privacy.
It’s digital gold, for all.
If you’re unfamiliar with the history of bitcoin and the internet, start with how the internet came to be. I wrote about a group of people known as the cypherpunks who laid the groundwork for bitcoin and online privacy.
$90k Floor?
With the exception of a few hours here and there, bitcoin has remained above $100,000 for most of May, June, and now July.
When global markets pulled back a few weeks ago due to international conflicts, it dipped below $100k before rebounding sharply.
The further we go, the more $100,000 looks like a soft floor, followed by $90,000. The short-term cost basis is mid $90,000s and any correction towards there means that something bigger is happening in global economic markets.
Opportunity
Bitcoin buys you opportunity.
I talk about price a lot but mainly that’s because everyone talks about price. It’s a recurring and unavoidable topic but price is just a number.
Bitcoin is an enabler.
It gives you time back for the things you love to do. You can use bitcoin to improve your life. If you’re not using it for that, then what are you doing?
A common trope as of late is, “you do not sell your bitcoin.” Michael Saylor has popularized it. He’s smarter than that of course but the phrase emphasizes his company's strategy in the most hyperbolic way possible.
“You do not sell your bitcoin” cuts to the heart of the digital gold or digital real estate narrative. It speaks to the fact that bitcoin is the best performing asset of its 16 year old life and that it makes sense to be long bitcoin.
But…
You can sell your bitcoin.
You can transact with it.
You can sell a little bit, you can sell a lot, you can buy more or save new dollars earned in bitcoin, regardless of the price.
You can do what you want.
In periods of all-time high price levels, we often see long term bitcoiners sell small amounts of their stack. I often talk about this when it comes to HODL Waves but it has to be reiterated that bitcoin is like any other financial asset. You use it in a way that works for you and your family.
Bitcoiners who have held coins longer tend to keep holding them but we do see them sell some, usually near all-time highs, likely to improve their lives.
Opportunity Cost
We’re entering a “mania” phase.
This is where the cycle can get really crazy. I still see the next leg up between $125,000-150,000. Beyond that is beyond me. We’ll see what happens.
A lot still depends on what’s happening globally. In the US, the federal government appears keen on increasing the deficit. I’ve seen numbers around the recent passage of the BBB that would increase the debt by $6 trillion... Lyn Alden says it best when she says, “nothing stops this train.”
If you haven’t listened to her talk from Bitcoin 2025 yet, stop what you’re doing and dedicate the next 20 minutes of your life to it.
Bitcoin’s use case becomes clearer and clearer by the day, for both individuals and institutions. The small nation state of Bhutan now has bitcoin holdings worth 40% of its GDP and there are no signs that slowing.
As mania hits, volatility increases. The rise of bitcoin and altcoin treasury companies is capturing headlines. “Altseason” may or may not hit but volatility will spike and gambling will run amuck. That’s for sure.
There will be big winners in equities and cryptocurrencies and, for me, at the end of the day, it’s about what I can afford to risk. Knowing and using bitcoin for more than a decade, I know it better than just about any other asset I’ve encountered in my life. That’s wild to say but it’s true. I’m comfortable not risking it for potentially larger, short term, gains in the bull run because I’m comfortable with what it has enabled for me thus far and what it can enable in the future.
I lost a little over half my bitcoin stack thanks to speculation during the prior two market cycles and not truly understanding yet what bitcoin was.
For awareness, when it comes to crypto, I only hold BTC. When it comes to crypto related equities, I hold the bitcoin ETFs IBIT and ARKB respectively in different accounts and the crypto and digital asset ETF FDIG as well as a value oriented ETF MVPA that has a small weighting to MSTR. That’s about it.
Bitcoin is the signal.
That doesn’t change.
The crypto industry is flooding Wall Street and broad market indexes will start to get more and more exposure. The world is never short opportunities but, when it comes to bitcoin, I try to keep it as simple as possible. As Ray Dalio puts it, "You can do almost anything, but you can't do everything."
Focus is important.
So, the best and most evergreen bitcoin saying isn’t “You do not sell your bitcoin.”
The best one is:
“Stay humble. Stack sats.”
and…
You can stack however you want.
When asked what type of government the new United States had in the late 1780s, Ben Franklin said, “A republic, if you can keep it.”
I’m not sure we have a republic today but what I am sure about is that Americans and individuals worldwide often have more power than they realize.
It’s important to be optimistic.
I’m not necessarily ready for the wild ride of the next decade or two but is anyone ever fully ready for what comes next? Control what you can. If you’re part of the bitcoin community, it will get bigger, gradually then suddenly. It’s a scary but exciting time. If you’re in the US, enjoy the 4th. See you next week.
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Enjoy the weekend!
I am not an investment or financial advisor. All opinions expressed are mine alone. Read the full DISCLAIMER on the About page.
HODL on Garth.