Bitcoin on Derby Day
Happy Bitcoin Friday! — May 2, 2025
Bitcoin on Derby Day
It’s that time of year again.
The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby is happening this Saturday and it’s safe to say that betting the derby is a bigger gamble than holding bitcoin.
That said, I’ll bet the derby.
Last year on derby day, the price of bitcoin was $63,162 and it’s up more than 65% since then. We’re mid to late bull market and nearing the home stretch.
$100k
$100,000 is back in sight.
Since kicking off the bull market in October, the floor has been $75,000. Prior four-year cycle highs have often acted as floors for the current cycle.
There’s still another 3 to 7 months worth of a bull market in store for bitcoin if history is any indication of what to expect so that trend could continue.
Gold
Gold is at all-time highs.
The tried and true institutional store of value is notching all-time high after all-time high in 2025. Given the macro environment, that’s no surprise.
Institutions, particularly central banks/governments, are familiar with gold, how to acquire it, and default to it as their safe haven reserve asset.
Gold is a muscle they know.
Bitcoin? Not so much yet.
Gold and bitcoin aren’t at odds with one another though. Revisit this post from three years ago: It’s Not Bitcoin vs Gold to learn more about the two.
Gold’s recent performance is being viewed by many as a leading indicator for what to expect from bitcoin. Gold is inching higher but, when bitcoin moves higher, it does so at a greater clip. Bitcoin’s 30% bounce off April lows is a reminder that bitcoin’s smaller market cap means it’s the more volatile asset but volatility is a feature, not a bug and it’s a feature that has us revisiting $100k once again.
151st Derby
If you’re a gold bug…
Chunk of Gold is a horse running in the derby at 30-1 odds. Journalism, 3-1, is the current favorite. I’m not taking either (you can’t bet the favorite).
Citizen Bull, 20-1, is now six-time derby winning trainer Bob Baffert’s only horse so he’s probably worth a wager. In 2021, Baffert’s Medina Spirit won the race before later being disqualified, giving the derby win to Brad Cox’s Mandaloun. Cox has the 30-1 Final Gambit who will likely finish middle of the pack but he’s worth a flyer.
Enjoy the race.
Enjoy the weekend.
Hodl bitcoin.
It’s also Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting this weekend so let’s end with a quote from Uncle Warren to ponder: “Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”–Warren Buffett
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Enjoy the weekend!
I am not an investment or financial advisor. All opinions expressed are mine alone. Read the full DISCLAIMER on the About page.
HODL on Garth.