Bitcoin Is Up 20%

Bitcoin, Halloween, and Q4 price action.

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Market Analysis

Crypto market sentiment and my take.

Target Price Range: $50,000-58,000

Bitcoin is up 20% in October

In the first two weeks of the month, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has rocketed from $43,000 to prices north of $56,000. October is signaling bullish.

The last time we saw Bitcoin at this price, it was May 11. Following the all time high on April 14, 2021, BTC began its slide to lows near $30,000.

Year to date though, Bitcoin has held up.

$30,000 proved to be support

We tested $30k in mid May—then again in mid June and again in mid July. Since lows at $28,889.01, Bitcoin has nearly doubled.

An up and down summer tested Bitcoin and has set us up for yet another shot at an all time high.

Bitcoin must prove $50,000 support

As of Monday, Bitcoin is showing overbought signals in the mid $50,000s. This could be temporary but it’s making it difficult to take $58,000 in the short term.

I’ll reiterate my target price range of $50,000-58,000. That’s the key level to watch this week. The September close of $43,790.90 was lower than we wanted but it did confirm support near the $42,000 level. Since the end of September, Bitcoin’s been on a tear, surging well beyond the August close of $47,166.69 and setting up the possibility of support at $50,000.

We’ve seen these price levels before but it’s still relatively untested territory for Bitcoin. If we can prove support at $50,000, then we can move to the next psychological level of $60,000 and ultimately the all time high near $64,000. Taking down the $58,000-60,000 price range with conviction opens up a new all time high and reveals potential for a strong close to 2021.

Trick? Or… October Treat?

Bitcoin has a history with Halloween.

On October 31, 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto announced the Bitcoin White Paper to a cryptography mailing list.

Bitcoin was born.

Was Halloween significant?

Those who believe Hal Finney to be Satoshi would say that releasing the white paper on “Hal”loween was an easter egg—alluding to “Hal” as the creator of what would become the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

I don’t think Finney was Satoshi but his early work on Bitcoin helped lay the foundation for what it would become. He was also a beloved figure in the tech space and would be proud of where we are today.

Finney aside, Bitcoin has historically done big things in Q4. I previously wrote about some of the WILD PRICE ACTION we’ve seen in 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020, and now what we’ve started to see in the first few weeks of October 2021.

READ: When I Buy Bitcoin

What to Watch

What’s happening in Bitcoin.

I previously gave my 2021 predictions.

Bitcoin has primed the crypto market for quite the close to the year and as we finish the final months of 2021, it’s key to pause and look back.

Last year, the bull run kicked off with an institutional push. This was followed by a standard retail frenzy which then brought an onslaught of criticism around the likes of regulation, taxation, mining, and more. Amidst all this, we had the wealthiest person in the world tweeting about memecoins, buying Bitcoin for his company, and taking hold of the 24/7 crypto news cycle.

We’ve seen NFT markets surge, all time high prices, volatile downswings, crypto exchanges go public, and a country make Bitcoin legal tender.

As Dan Held says above, this is only the beginning. More companies, countries, and funds are coming. We are still so early. I write about Bitcoin because I believe it is sound money and because I believe access to financial services is critical for empowering individuals and communities.

El Salvador shows us what’s possible when a country embraces Bitcoin. It’s still early in that experiment but Bitcoin is proving its use case as a censorship-resistant store of value and medium of exchange in places like Lebanon, Turkey, Nigeria, Venezuela, Ukraine, and yes, even China.

Money is technology and Bitcoin is newer and better technology. Individuals who cannot rely on their local currencies or the governments who control them are the early adopters of the full suite of tools that Bitcoin provides. With that adoption, comes an entire industry and, more importantly, a global community.

While I’m watching price action between $50,000-58,000 this week, I’m also reminding myself why any of that matters.

Price is just a number.

If you stumbled upon this for the first time, consider subscribing today to join us as we close out what has become a landmark year in Bitcoin and crypto.

Enjoy your week ahead.


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$56,702.46—BTC Today

I am not an investment or financial advisor. All opinions expressed are mine alone. Read the full DISCLAIMER on the About page.