Bitcoin and Macro

Happy Bitcoin Friday! — Feb. 21, 2025

Bitcoin and Macro

US markets tumbled Friday.

The Nasdaq fell 2.2% and the Dow and S&P 500 both dropped 1.69% and 1.71% respectively. Markets like certainty and 2025 has been filled with the opposite.

Some issues to consider:

• geopolitical tensions

• US tariffs

• the Trump admin

There’s a lot happening…

Bitcoin dropped 1.82% Friday.

Bitcoin has a complicated history of being either a risk-on or risk-off asset, dependent upon the context of the given situation.

It’s also an asset that was at one time extremely niche and that is now commonplace within the broader economy.

Even with this week’s losses, bitcoin’s market cap is nearly $2 trillion.

Gold’s market cap is about $19 trillion. Apple is the largest publicly-traded US company by market cap at $3.7 trillion. Bitcoin’s market cap is more than twice the size of JPMorgan Chase, the largest financial company.

Bitcoin is often compared to:

• gold

• tech stocks

• tradfi stocks

• currencies

Learn More About…

Certainty

Markets like certainty.

Last November, markets rallied following the US Presidential election. Over time, traditional markets go up. They do so under either party.

Knowing the outcome of the election meant certainty for the next 2-3 months.

Now, we’re smack dab in the middle of Trump’s first 100 days and there’s an unprecedented mix of certainty in terms of policy opinions and approaches being taken by the administration right alongside massive uncertainty with how a lot of these policies can be implemented or what their potential outcomes might be.

Oh, and there’s still inflation.

Plus, there’s still major conflicts happening abroad and we’ve had curveballs with things like DeepSeek threatening US artificial intelligence dominance.