A “Down” Year?

Happy Bitcoin Friday! — Dec. 26, 2025

Dec 26, 2025

Bitcoin 2025: Not What You Expected?

Heading into 2025, expectations were loud and confident.

Last year, Bitcoin ripped higher in Q4 and closed 2024 up roughly 125%.

The narrative felt familiar:

post-halving acceleration
euphoric year-end momentum
higher highs into the yearly close

That’s not how 2025 played out.

With days left in the year, Bitcoin is sitting at a single-digit percentage loss, despite printing new all-time highs above $125,000 just a few short months ago.

So… what?

Does ending a year slightly red actually make it a loss? Like most things in life, and especially in markets, perspective matters.

Time Horizon Changes Everything

Yes, 2025 might close down. There’s still time. But zoom out even slightly and the picture changes fast.

Following an insanely positive 2024, Bitcoin still pushed to new all-time highs in 2025. That alone matters. On a long enough timeline, Bitcoin’s famous parabolic chart looks smooth. When you zoom in, years like this are exactly what you get.

You get volatility. You get it particularly in the later innings of a bull run too.

Historically, Bitcoin’s all-time highs and subsequent corrections have tended to align with the four-year halving cycle.

This year didn’t break that pattern so much as roughly rhyme with it.

At the same time, Bitcoin is likely beginning to pull away from strict four-year cycle expectations. Halvings still occur, but the psychology around them is changing.

Bitcoin isn’t the same asset it was in 2012, 2016 or even 2020.

A Maturing Macro Asset

Bitcoin is now a legitimate macro asset.

The largest institutional players in the world run the largest spot Bitcoin ETF products. Bitcoin sustained prices above $100,000 for six consecutive months, from May through November, before correcting to current levels.

And it’s worth pausing here: $100,000 is still new territory.

In January, the Bitcoin network turns 16 years old. When you look back across those sixteen years, the price levels and market caps we casually reference today are still extremely recent developments.

If 2025 marked a blow-off top…

It was a blow-off top that occurred during the longest stretch Bitcoin has ever traded above $100,000, or above a $2 trillion market cap.

That’s impressive.

I don’t care what you say. As of writing, Bitcoin sits roughly 12% below $100k. Zoom out. Even if 2025 ends down, Bitcoin is still up well over 100% on a two-year basis.

Are Bitcoin cycles evolving?

Find Out

CAGR: The Perspective Most People Ignore

Short-term performance dominates headlines. Long-term compounding tells the real story.

Here’s a rough look at Bitcoin’s CAGR.

1-year CAGR: -6%
2-year CAGR: 44%
3-year CAGR: 25%
5-year CAGR: 55%
10-year CAGR: 80%

The takeaway isn’t the exact number.

It’s the shape of the curve.

Perspective matters.

Price Is Just a Number — But It Still Matters

I say this often: price is just a number.

It’s not Bitcoin’s purpose. It’s not its soul. But it is the leading signal and marketing force that pulls new people into the network.

Price drives attention.
Attention drives adoption.

And today, Bitcoin isn’t just a spot asset anymore. We now have deep derivative markets, ETFs, mining equities, custody products, and financial rails built on top of Bitcoin. That means that volatility, both up and down, creates activity, interest, and engagement. Up is usually better for most participants. But short-term down is simply part of the game.

Higher Lows Still Matter

Looking ahead, 2026 offers Bitcoin another chance to reinforce a long-standing pattern: establishing higher lows.

We may be moving beyond four-year cycles, but some patterns still hold, even if they appear rougher around the edges.

Over time, I focus less on tops and more on yearly lows. And over time, those lows keep moving higher.

No one can call tops or bottoms consistently, unless you’re God. And writing this the day after Christmas, I’m confident no one talking about Bitcoin on Earth has that level of insight.

So you approach Bitcoin the way you approach anything meaningful: engage with it in a way that makes sense for you.

I look at price.
I don’t let it define my take on Bitcoin.

2025 Was Bigger Than Markets

This year wasn’t just about price.

We saw real innovation and competition in Bitcoin hardware and custody. We saw renewed pushes toward Bitcoin as a payment network, with companies like Block making serious moves in small business and peer-to-peer payments.

We were reminded that Bitcoin remains a nascent but powerful monetary asset.

Its true use case is defined by the user. There is no single use case, no matter what anyone tells you.

In everyday life, money is debt layered on top of debt. IOUs stacked on IOUs. Competing custodians, institutions, and governments all promising future claims.

Bitcoin cuts through that system.

It enters as a digital bearer asset, capable of near-instant, privacy-preserving payments without a third party, and long-term savings that cannot be seized or debased. And, it stands apart from everything else in crypto.