70% of All Bitcoin
More than 70% of all bitcoin hasn't moved in over a year. Here's what that means and why it's important.
70% of All Bitcoin
The percent of bitcoin that hasn’t moved in more than a year continues to increase over time. It just passed 70%.
See the above chart.
Just like the price of bitcoin, the supply that sits dormant for 1+ year spikes up and down throughout each market cycle.
Much of the movement is dependent upon external or broader macro factors.
In Plain English
70% of the bitcoin supply not moving in over a year means that bitcoiners, like myself, are long term holders.
I checked my own bitcoin.
I have a cold storage (i.e. self-custody—LEARN WHAT THAT IS HERE) wallet that I created May 10, 2021. The bitcoin I moved to it on that very day is still in that wallet. I’ve sent more bitcoin to it since setting it up but a majority of the bitcoin on that cold storage wallet has been sitting there for between 2.5 and 1.5 years. And really… I’ve had some of that bitcoin for a decade now so it’s only technically moved because I started using a new wallet.
It’s Not “Inactive”
There’s some misconceptions around what it means that 70% of all bitcoin hasn’t moved in over a year. Critics say that means people aren’t using bitcoin BUT the exact opposite is true.
In the same way that the average person builds up their savings and investment assets, bitcoiners build up their long term bitcoin holdings.
I still use bitcoin.
I spend it and give some away to friends and newcomers.
I buy bitcoin every single week.
But, I have also been concentrating a large percentage of my total bitcoin holdings into that “long term savings” type of bucket.
That bucket contributes to the 70%.
70% of bitcoin hasn’t changed hands in over a year, yes, but the hands that the bitcoin has been in have stronger conviction than ever before.
Macro Factors
rising inflation
banking crises
global conflicts
political instability
front-running Wall Street
There’s a lot of factors at play here.
The first few speak to the volatile economic and political environment in the world today. We have countries with triple digit inflation rates, some of whom refuse to even publish inflation rates anymore because it’s gotten so bad…
Recent banking failures and mergers amidst an increasingly difficult rate environment have also driven individual investors to seek out more secure and sovereign long term assets like gold and bitcoin.
“The institutions are coming” via potential US spot bitcoin ETFs with BlackRock leading the application process. While this is still TBD, retail and individual bitcoiners are front-running Wall Street competitors by continuing to buy bitcoin regularly and move it to these long term self-custody wallets.
Bitcoiners like myself are bracing for a supply shock the likes we have never seen in bitcoin’s now 15 year history.
Go Deeper:
125%
I’ll close with a look at markets.
Bitcoin is up 125% year-to-date…
Bitcoin, as an asset class, continues to soak up value. Its four-year market cycle is coinciding with significant macro factors.
The next bitcoin halving will hit is late April 2024. The fact that 70% of bitcoin hasn’t moved in over a year is a signal that bitcoiners aren’t selling.
We’re not going anywhere.
We’re also still using bitcoin.
Even just saving is using.
We’ve barely scratched the surface in terms of mainstream bitcoin adoption too. El Salvador remains the great nation-state bitcoin experiment where its been declared legal tender. A US spot bitcoin ETF would open up the asset class to financial advisors and investors who have otherwise restricted themselves to the sidelines.
In Argentina, we’re witnessing potentially another bitcoin-friendly president in Latin America with Javier Milei projected to win on Sunday. His platform—rein in an administration that’s run Argentina’s currency into the ground, yet again. A lot is happening in the world.
Bitcoin is part of it.
This isn’t just some speculative investment for westerners to profit of off. It’s not “crypto.” Bitcoin is financial optionality for the entire world and people are slowly starting to wake up to it.
I am. And, so are you.
Thx for reading!
I am not an investment or financial advisor. All opinions expressed are mine alone. Read the full DISCLAIMER on the About page.
HODL on Garth.