38% Bounce
Bitcoin is back above $100,000.
We’re exactly one month out from the April lows near $75,000 and bitcoin is up more than 38% since then and rising above $100,000 yet again.
104%
Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate since inception is about 104%. That’s an insane number that includes the initial few years worth of parabolic growth but I mention it because the world is waking up to including bitcoin as part of the typical investment portfolio. Let’s look at bitcoin performance through different lenses and we’ll remove some of the very early days for the longest performance views.
Since Inception (2009–2025)
Approximate annualized return (CAGR): ~80–100%
Note: This includes some exponential gains when Bitcoin was worth pennies.
Last 10 Years (2015–2025)
Approximate CAGR: ~40–50%
Includes major bull and bear cycles, e.g., 2017 boom, 2018 crash, 2021 peak, 2022–2023 downturn, and 2024–2025 recovery.
Last 5 Years (2020–2025)
Approximate CAGR: ~25–35%
Reflects more mature market behavior and institutional involvement.
These numbers are approximate and depend heavily on exact timing (start and end dates). Bitcoin is highly volatile, and annualized returns can differ widely with just a few months' shift in the investment window.
S&P 500
Now, let’s look at the S&P 500.
Since 1957 (500 companies)
With dividends: ~10–11%
Price only: ~6.5–7%
The total return (including dividends reinvested) is significantly higher and more reflective of long-term investor performance.
Inflation-adjusted total return is closer to ~7% real CAGR.
Last 10 Years (2015–2025)
With dividends: ~11–12%
Price only: ~9.5–10.5%
Strong growth fueled by Big Tech, post-COVID recovery, and stimulus.
2022 downturn and 2023 correction slightly dragged returns, but overall trend remained positive.
Last 5 Years (2020–2025)
With dividends: ~9.5–10.5%
Price only: ~8–9%
Includes the pandemic crash in 2020, massive recovery in 2021, correction in 2022, and renewed growth into 2024–2025.
Slightly more volatile period compared to the 10-year window.
If you want to go down a rabbit hole, check out casebitcoin.com for charts, data, and plenty of comparisons of bitcoin to traditional assets and markets.
I mention the S&P 500 though because it is largely considered the middle class store of value. It’s what’s in the average worker’s retirement account.
And, while 10% returns are wonderful, even bitcoin’s recent 25-35% performance dwarfs that over a few years worth of runway. You can see that bitcoin’s CAGR is slowing as it become more institutionalized and grows its market cap but 10% is the number to beat and it continues to do that even in recent years.
Here’s another nugget:
When the current bull market kicked off in October last year, I said that we were once again entering price discovery mode.
Uncharted waters.
Look at current prices.
We’ve closed days over current levels for not even two weeks of bitcoin’s entire life. Bitcoin is at all-time high levels right now.
The all-time high price around $109,000 hit earlier this year but the reality is that the current market cycle’s worth of trading represents small single digit percentages in terms of bitcoin’s entire history.
$100,000 is a very large round number. $50,000 is another one and despite reaching highs near $70,000 last cycle, bitcoin didn’t sustain those levels for long.
It took the current market cycle to reestablish and further entrench $50,000 (and ultimately a bit higher once holders like MicroStrategy increased conviction) as a level now representing close to 10% of bitcoin’s life.
Context
You have to put price in context.
The three best metrics are:
price is just a number
but, it’s the simplest metric
it’s an indicator of broader trends
shows health of network
shows security of network
provides insight into miners
btc’s share of the crypto market
shows btc vs. crypto interest
provides insight into market cycles
More on these three metrics:
I didn’t hit the derby winner last week but there’s always next year. It’ll be interesting to see what levels bitcoin is at one year from now.
Enjoy the weekend!
I am not an investment or financial advisor. All opinions expressed are mine alone. Read the full DISCLAIMER on the About page.
HODL on Garth.