2021 Bitcoin Predictions

Q4 will close a historic year for crypto.

Welcome to The Bitcoin Binge Letter! If this was shared with you, join the email list.

Market Analysis

Crypto market sentiment and my take.

Target Price Range: $42,000-47,000

Bitcoin remains in a tight trading range below $50,000. Despite China making crypto-related transactions illegal, BTC is even on the week.

Bitcoin is down ~9% in September

After a rally to $53,000 is early September, Bitcoin failed to retake the $50,000 price level and the August close is now the more immediate target.

  • Aug. Close—$47,166.69

Price ranges to watch:

  • $34,000-42,000

  • 42,000-47,000

  • $47,000-50,000

  • $50,000-53,000

Wider range remains:

  • $30,000-67,000

I wanted Bitcoin to close above $53,000 in order to signal a bullish push toward a new all time high. That may not happen in time for the September close.

While traditional markets have steadied in the last week, an immediate spike for either them or crypto appears out of the question. That said, I’ll take consolidation at current levels. Bitcoin is up 300% since this time last year.

2021 Predictions

What will happen in Q4?

$42,000 is key

Since the last week of July, Bitcoin has managed to hold above the $40,000 price level with the exception of a few days. $42k appears to be new support. If it breaks though, we could slide toward $30k. It’s possible, but I think it’s unlikely. The last time we tested $30k levels, it was a brief and followed by a strong bounce.

Is $100k possible?

$100,000 is being touted as the price to hit before the end of 2021. Popular analysts, including Bitcoin’s PlanB, are calling for it.

As far off as $100k seems, it’s just 2x from current prices. I think a six-figure Bitcoin price is possible before year’s end if, and only if, we take down $67k with conviction. A 5-10% push above the current all time high can open up new waters.

2021 Price Top Predictions:

  • PlanB: $100k

  • Will Clemente: $148k

  • Bobby Lee: $150-333k

U.S. regulation can’t stop crypto

What I mean—U.S. regulation won’t impact Bitcoin and crypto negatively. Coinbase is now letting users deposit paychecks directly to their accounts. BlockFi continues to push forward despite regulatory uncertainty and Gemini is ramping up hiring. These are just a few of the bigger players in the U.S.-crypto space. On top of the exchanges, American Bitcoin mining is thriving.

The U.S. now accounts for at least 17% of the total Bitcoin mining hash on the planet and that’s data from April 2021. Hash rate reporting is largely voluntary and difficult to pinpoint but one thing is clear—the U.S. is now a major player.

Stablecoins are coming under the most scrutiny as of late in the U.S. and that’s largely because they’re the most vulnerable. Stablecoins and altcoins which are far more centralized (often “decentralized in name only”) will be the biggest targets for regulators. Remember that any “Bitcoin Regulation” will be regulation around the on and off-ramps for BTC, not Bitcoin itself. Real Bitcoin cannot be regulated.

Enter, China.

China becomes irrelevant

First came the Chinese mining exodus, partially contributing to the growth in American mining (Kazakstan, Russia, Malaysia, and others have also seen mining expansion). Then came China making crypto-transactions illegal.

Bans are nothing new in China. 2021 is a time for newer entrants to realize that we’ve seen this all before—been there, banned that.

The Chinese government is ramping up efforts to centralize control over their economy, especially as it relates to monetary outflows. Their larger push around the digital yuan is also playing a part in this drama.

Bobby Lee is one of the founders of China’s earliest Bitcoin exchanges (BTC China or BTCC) and he now runs Ballet Crypto. Self-custody, truly taking ownership over your crypto and storing it securely, is surging because of China’s latest crackdowns. Ballet Crypto and others are witnessing that demand for self-custody up close.

One thing is clear—government bans can’t stop crypto and they definitely can’t stop Bitcoin. There’s still an appetite for Bitcoin amongst the Chinese people but the government continues to make it more difficult to enter and exit the market. All this will do is drive crypto innovation elsewhere and further Bitcoin’s use case as a censorship resistant, store of value asset among Chinese citizens willing to HODL.

Wild and wonderful holidays

Let the volatility begin.

Bitcoin has historically done wild things at the end of the year. In 2013, BTC soared to $1,000 from just $100 between October and November.

In 2016, Bitcoin made a 60% move between September and the end of the year.

In 2017, we saw the unprecedented rise from roughly $4,000 in September to the then all time high near $20,000 in the final weeks of December.

Last year, we were trading near $10,000 at this time and you know where we are now—4x that. The bull market began in Q4 and turned crypto into an undeniable force.

I don’t know what the price will be, but I like our chances of an all time high if we can retake $50,000 before the end of October and make a push above $53,000. Once we’re in the $53,000-67,000 range, anything can happen.

What to Watch

What’s happening in Bitcoin.

Zoom out—always look at the bigger picture. Short term FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) around things like China endlessly banning Bitcoin is nothing.

Long term holders continue to grow.

The September price slide also comes alongside the fact that institutions are buying the dip. This week marks six consecutive weeks of institutional inflows outpacing outflows. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the cryptocurrencies in demand for institutions. While I hold both, my portfolio favors BTC to ETH by more than 2:1.

I also currently hold both Cardano and Ravencoin. Traditionally, I’ve mined Ethereum. This started when I built a mining rig for less than $1,000. I have, however, started exclusively mining Ravencoin.

Paid subscribers get inside looks at my entire crypto portfolio—what I hold, what I’m buying, and when I’m doing it. There’s my rig above! I added a 6th graphics card to it this month and am mining 100% RVN with it. Since taking this picture, I’ve also made some tweaks to optimize the rig’s performance.

I’m a Bitcoiner

At the end of the day, I’m a Bitcoiner.

Anything I mine or hold will ultimately be converted to BTC.

I am a long term holder. I am part of that growing percentage of Bitcoiners holding BTC at a profit and moving it into cold storage for safe keeping. 2021 will go down as a historic year for Bitcoin and I’m glad you’re here for it.

READ: When I Buy Bitcoin

Thx for Subscribing!

You’re reading the free email.

Become a paid subscriber to enjoy everything moving forward and to read the entire archive. Your support is appreciated!

$42,498.40—BTC Today

I am not an investment or financial advisor. All opinions expressed are mine alone. Read the full DISCLAIMER on the About page.